Playing the right starting hands is the foundation of profitable poker. While tournament strategy shifts based on stack sizes and blind levels, cash game hand selection follows clearer mathematical principles. This guide breaks down exactly which hands to play, their win rates, and how position affects your decisions.
Why Starting Hand Selection Matters
Most recreational players lose money because they play too many hands. The difference between a winning and losing player often comes down to discipline in hand selection. In cash games, you can afford to wait for premium hands since blinds don't increase and you can always rebuy.
The brutal truth: About 80% of starting hands should go straight to the muck in most situations. The key is knowing which 20% to play and when.
Starting Hand Win Rates by Position
Here are the win rates for key starting hands against random opponents, broken down by position:
| Hand | Early Position | Middle Position | Late Position | Button | Small Blind | Big Blind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 85.3% | 85.3% | 85.3% | 85.3% | 85.3% | 85.3% |
| KK | 82.4% | 82.4% | 82.4% | 82.4% | 82.4% | 82.4% |
| 79.9% | 79.9% | 79.9% | 79.9% | 79.9% | 79.9% | |
| JJ | 77.1% | 77.1% | 77.1% | 77.1% | 77.1% | 77.1% |
| TT | 74.6% | 74.6% | 74.6% | 74.6% | 74.6% | 74.6% |
| 99 | 71.7% | 71.7% | 71.7% | 71.7% | 71.7% | 71.7% |
| 88 | 68.7% | 68.7% | 68.7% | 68.7% | 68.7% | 68.7% |
| AKs | ❌ | ✅ 66.2% | ✅ 66.2% | ✅ 66.2% | ✅ 66.2% | ✅ 66.2% |
| AQs | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ 63.4% | ✅ 63.4% | ✅ 63.4% | ✅ 63.4% |
| AJs | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ 60.8% | ✅ 60.8% | ✅ 60.8% | ✅ 60.8% |
| AKo | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ 65.4% | ✅ 65.4% | ✅ 65.4% | ✅ 65.4% |
| KQs | ❌ | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ 58.1% | ✅ 58.1% | ✅ 58.1% |
| 77 | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ 65.4% | ✅ 65.4% | ✅ 65.4% | ✅ 65.4% |
| 66 | ❌ | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ 62.1% | ✅ 62.1% | ✅ 62.1% |
| 55 | ❌ | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ 58.9% | ❌ | ✅ 58.9% |
| A10s | ❌ | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ 58.4% | ❌ | ✅ 58.4% |
| KJs | ❌ | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ 55.7% | ❌ | ✅ 55.7% |
| QJs | ❌ | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ 53.2% | ❌ | ✅ 53.2% |
| 44 | ❌ | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ 55.8% | ❌ | ✅ 55.8% |
| 33 | ❌ | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ 52.7% | ❌ | ✅ 52.7% |
| 22 | ❌ | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ 49.9% | ❌ | ✅ 49.9% |
Legend: ✅ = Profitable to play | ❌ = Fold | Percentages = Win rate vs random hand
Position-Based Strategy
Early Position (Under the Gun)
Play only: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88
Early position is the most dangerous spot at the table. You'll act first on every street, giving opponents a massive informational advantage. Stick to premium hands that can handle pressure from multiple opponents.
Middle Position
Add: AKs
With a few players behind you, you can expand slightly. AK suited is strong enough to handle action, especially with the potential for big draws.
Late Position (Cutoff, Button)
Add: AQs, AJs, AKo, KQs, 77, 66, 55, A10s, KJs, QJs, 44, 33, 22
Late position is where poker gets profitable. You act last, seeing everyone else's action first. This informational advantage lets you play marginal hands profitably.
Small Blind
Special considerations: The small blind is tricky because you're out of position post-flop but getting 1.5-to-1 on a call. Play tighter than the button but looser than early position.
Big Blind
Defend with: Any hand listed for late position when facing a single raise
You're getting great pot odds and already have money invested. Defend your big blind liberally, but be prepared to fold on difficult flops when out of position.
Multi-Way Pot Adjustments
When facing multiple opponents, hand values shift dramatically:
- Premium pairs (AA-JJ): Still strong, but be careful with one-pair hands on coordinated boards
- Suited aces: Increase in value due to nut flush potential
- Small pairs: Great implied odds to hit sets
- Suited connectors: Excellent multi-way hands with straight and flush potential
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Playing Too Many Hands
The leak: "This ace-rag looks good in late position"
The fix: Stick to the chart. A9o might look appealing, but it's a long-term loser.
Ignoring Position
The leak: Playing AQ from early position because "it's a good hand"
The fix: Hand strength is relative to position. AQ early position = fold. AQ on the button = raise.
Overvaluing Suited Cards
The leak: Playing any two suited cards
The fix: Suited adds about 2-3% equity. K7s is still trash.
Advanced Concepts
Gap Concept
You need a stronger hand to call a raise than to make one yourself. If someone raises in front of you, tighten your calling range significantly.
Reverse Implied Odds
Some hands can make strong second-best hands that cost you big pots. Be careful with hands like KQ on ace-high boards or middle pairs on coordinated flops.
Table Dynamics
Against loose-aggressive players, tighten up and let them bluff into your strong hands. Against tight players, you can expand your range and steal more pots.
Putting It into Practice
Start by memorizing the early and middle position ranges - these are your bread and butter. Once you're comfortable, gradually expand to late position play.
Sample Session Plan:
- First hour: Stick religiously to the chart
- Monitor your VPIP (voluntarily put money in pot) - aim for 18-22%
- Track which hands are profitable over time
- Gradually add marginal hands as your post-flop play improves
Calculate Your Edge
Understanding starting hand percentages is just the beginning. Once you see a flop, your odds change dramatically based on your draws and opponents' likely holdings.
For precise calculations of your winning chances after the flop - especially in multi-way pots where traditional poker wisdom breaks down - check out our Advanced Poker Outs Calculator. It adjusts probabilities based on the number of players at your table, giving you the edge that most players miss.
Remember: poker is a game of small edges compounded over time. Perfect starting hand selection gives you the foundation to build a profitable cash game strategy.
Get precise odds that adjust to your table size - because the Rule of 4 and 2 doesn't work in multi-way pots